A’ja Wilson Over 29.5
Points + Assists · New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces
Watchlist
Watchlist only. This prop is being monitored for market confirmation and is not official yet. It does not count toward the official record unless promoted to Live / Smash Playable before game time.
Tracked Prop
Current preferred side is being tracked. This is not an official play and does not count toward the record.
Over 29.5
Price -110
Preserved for history. It is not record-eligible unless the final locked decision matches it.
Sources checked: Official WNBA New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces game page for July 30, 2026, Official WNBA Las Vegas Aces team news showing A’ja Wilson played and scored 38 points on July 22, 2026, User-supplied screenshot and typed consensus, DraftKings, theScore, Caesars, Fanatics, PrizePicks, Underdog, ProphetX, projection, EV, cover probability, trends, season record, H2H, and market assessment · Last verified 7:23 PM ET
A’ja Wilson Over 29.5 Points + Assists is the tracked Watchlist Initial Read for New York at Las Vegas on July 30, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. The supplied 33.7 projection creates 4.2 points of cushion, while ProphetX shows the best visible Over price at -110.
Quick Verdict
Original Number
29.5
29.5
29.5
Current Market Check
Current line: 29.5. Over -107 at User-supplied screenshot showing A’ja Wilson Over 29.5 Points + Assists with a market centered at 29.5 and a best visible Over price of -110; Under -127 at User-supplied screenshot showing A’ja Wilson Over 29.5 Points + Assists with a market centered at 29.5 and a best visible Over price of -110. Market move: Current Snapshot — Prior Check Unavailable. Current market snapshot captured: Line 29.5, Over -107, Under -127. The prior Market Monitor snapshot is unavailable, so no stronger-number, price-support, or no-movement classification can be made yet.
Sharp Layer
The supplied profile supports the Over through a 33.7 P+A projection, 4.2-point cushion, 70% cover probability, approximately +29% to +32% EV, L-5 60% Over, and L-15 60% Over. The season profile is less supportive at 48% Over, the season Over/Under record is 13–12, and H2H is 0%. Because the current market juice leans slightly Under, the play remains a Watchlist rather than a clean Smash Playable.
The board confirms a coherent 29.5 Points + Assists market. It does not provide verified opening-line history, ticket splits, handle splits, or a money screen. Treat the Under shading as a caution signal, not proof of confirmed sharp money.
Vegas / Market Read
Vegas / Market Read
The projection strongly favors the Over, but consensus Under 29.5 at -120 and theScore Under 29.5 at -125 show that the market is not yet charging more for the Over. Treat this as a Watchlist conflict rather than confirmed Vegas money against the play.
Opposite Side Candidate — Not Official
Under 29.5 is the market caution side, not a qualified opposite-side candidate. A preferred-side change would require updated projection, same-line price, availability, role, recent form, and market evidence strong enough to overturn the current Over profile.
The original Watchlist side remains unchanged.
Evaluated but not qualified. Under-side pricing is stronger at some sources, but the supplied projection is 4.2 points above the line with 70% cover probability. Price shading alone does not qualify a preferred-side reversal.
Under
Points + Assists
29.5
Under 29.5 -115 at Fanatics; consensus Under 29.5 -120; theScore Under 29.5 -125
Under 29.5 -120
The number is holding at 29.5 while consensus and theScore shade the Under more heavily. This is a caution signal, but not enough to overcome the supplied 33.7 projection.
Not confirmed
Low
User-supplied multi-source screenshot
Evaluated — Not Qualified
Advisory context only. It never changes the official record, grading, or recap eligibility.
Why the prop makes sense
- The supplied 33.7 P+A projection is 4.2 points above the 29.5 line.
- The supplied cover probability is 70%.
- The supplied EV is approximately +29% to +32%.
- The supplied L-5 and L-15 hit rates are both 60% Over.
- The best visible Over price is -110 at ProphetX.
Why it could lose
- Consensus pricing leans slightly toward the Under at Under 29.5 -120.
- theScore shows stronger Under shading at Under 29.5 -125.
- The supplied season Over rate is only 48%.
- The supplied H2H hit rate is 0%.
- A move to 30.5 or a price worse than -125 materially weakens the entry without stronger market confirmation.
Smash Scores
Initial Read
INITIAL READ — WATCHLIST: A’ja Wilson Over 29.5 Points + Assists at -110. The supplied 33.7 projection creates 4.2 points of cushion, with 70% cover probability and approximately +29% to +32% EV. The market is holding at 29.5, but the visible two-way price leans slightly Under, so Vegas money is not confirmed with the Over. Playable only as a Watchlist entry at -110 to -115. Upgrade if Over-side market confirmation strengthens. Pass if 29.5 becomes worse than -125 without confirmation. Do not play 30.5 unless a refreshed projection remains above 34.0 and the market moves with it. Confidence: B+. Not an Official Smash and not record, grading, or recap eligible until the Final 60-Minute Check produces final_locked.
FAQ
No. It is a tracked Watchlist Initial Read. It can become official only after market confirmation, same-day availability clearance, and a Final 60-Minute Check that produces final_locked.
The preferred supplied entry is Over 29.5 at -110. Keep it price-sensitive through -115.
The projection strongly supports the Over, but consensus and theScore price the Under more heavily. The market has not clearly confirmed Over-side money.
Pass if Over 29.5 becomes worse than -125 without stronger Over confirmation. Do not chase Over 30.5 without a refreshed projection above 34.0 and supportive movement.
No. The screenshot shows current lines and prices, but no reliable handle, ticket, steam, or sharp-money screen.
This content is for research and entertainment purposes only. No pick is guaranteed. Lines can move quickly. Always check the current line before making any decision.