Courtney Williams Under 25.5
Points + Rebounds + Assists · Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx
Expired Watchlist
Expired Watchlist. This was not promoted before game time and does not count toward the official record.
Sources checked: Official WNBA Portland Fire at Minnesota Lynx game page for July 18, 2026, Official Minnesota Lynx game preview listing the 7:00 PM CT start and current status-report state, Official Minnesota Lynx roster showing Courtney Williams, Official Minnesota Lynx announcement naming Courtney Williams a 2026 WNBA All-Star reserve, User-supplied Caesars, Fanatics, Novig, ProphetX, Sleeper, Hard Rock, consensus, projection, EV, cover probability, hit-rate profile, and Better Prop Selection Formula assessment · Last verified 7:22 PM ET
Courtney Williams Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists is a Smash Watchlist for Portland at Minnesota on July 18, 2026 at 7:00 PM CT. The supplied 22.4 projection creates 3.1 points of cushion, but weak hit rates and a split market keep the play unofficial.
Quick Verdict
Smash Watchlist.
SMASH WATCHLIST — Courtney Williams Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. The supplied 22.4 PRA projection creates 3.1 points of cushion to the Under. The projection clears the combo threshold, but weak recent hit rates and a split 25.5/26.5 board prevent an official promotion. Best practical entry: -115. Watchlist playable to -120.
Original Number
25.5
25.5
25.5
Historical Market Snapshot
Current line: 25.5. Over -108 at User-supplied multi-book board; best practical entry shown on Caesars, Novig, and ProphetX; Under -122 at User-supplied multi-book board; best practical entry shown on Caesars, Novig, and ProphetX. Market move: Market Holding — Price Moving Against Under. Price moved against the Under while the line held at 25.5. Under 25.5 is now -122; Over 25.5 is -108. Review the playable-price limit before applying any update.
Sharp Layer
The projection clears the preferred 2.5-point cushion for combo props, but the full Better Prop Selection Formula is not clean. The supplied hit rates are only 20% over the last 5, 27% over the last 15, 44% for the season, and 0% head-to-head. The split 25.5/26.5 board adds further caution.
The main board agrees on the Under side, but it does not agree completely on the number. The 26.5 option is too expensive for the normal cutoff, so the practical entry remains 25.5 at -115 to -120.
Pregame Vegas / Market Read
Vegas / Market Read
The supplied board leans Under, but the number is not fully uniform and reliable betting splits are unavailable. The market read is based on current book prices and cross-book number differences only.
Opposite Side Check — Historical
The Over does not fully qualify. The trend conflict raises risk for the Under, but there is no clear projection, price, movement, role, or formula support for a preferred-side reversal.
The original Watchlist side was never promoted and remains unchanged.
This section preserves the final pregame opposite-side assessment. It is historical context, not a current recommendation.
Monitor only. Weak Under hit rates create caution, but the supplied 22.4 projection and main-board pricing do not support an Over recommendation.
Over
Points + Rebounds + Assists
25.5
Unavailable
Over 25.5 price unavailable
No supplied evidence supports an Over-side reversal.
Unavailable
Low
User-supplied projection, hit-rate profile, and multi-book market board
Monitor Only
Advisory context only. It never changes the official record, grading, or recap eligibility.
Why the prop makes sense
- The supplied 22.4 PRA projection is 3.1 points below the 25.5 line.
- Combo props preferably need at least 2.5 points of cushion; this clears that threshold.
- Caesars and Novig offer Under 25.5 -115, better than the -120 consensus.
- Fanatics, ProphetX, and Sleeper also support the Under at 25.5.
- The supplied +25% EV and 68% cover probability support the candidate.
Why it could lose
- The supplied hit rates are weak: 20% over the last 5, 27% over the last 15, 44% for the season, and 0% head-to-head.
- Williams has a significant ball-handling and playmaking role that can create PRA through several categories.
- The board is split between 25.5 and 26.5, creating number sensitivity.
- The better 26.5 number is priced too heavily at -140.
- A drop to 24.5 removes a full point of protection and triggers Pass / No Chase.
Smash Scores
Pregame Final Call
SMASH WATCHLIST — Courtney Williams Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. Best practical entry: Under 25.5 -115. Watchlist playable to -120. Promote only if late Under support strengthens, 25.5 remains available, and no role or minutes concern appears. Pass / No Chase at Under 24.5 or Under 25.5 worse than -125.
FAQ
No. It remains Watchlist-only because the supplied hit-rate profile is weak and the market is split between 25.5 and 26.5.
The best supplied practical entry is Under 25.5 -115 on Caesars or Novig, with ProphetX also near that price.
The supplied projection is 22.4 PRA, which is 3.1 points below the 25.5 line.
Under 25.5 must remain available at -120 or better, late Under support must strengthen, and no role or minutes concern can appear.
Pass at Under 24.5 or if Under 25.5 becomes worse than -125.
This content is for research and entertainment purposes only. No pick is guaranteed. Lines can move quickly. Always check the current line before making any decision.