The Smash Report — Player Props. Market Moves. Playable Numbers.
Kennedy Burke
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Expired WatchlistWNBA· Tipoff 11:00 AM ET

Kennedy Burke Over 11.5

Points + Rebounds · Portland Fire @ Connecticut Sun

Expired Watchlist

Expired Watchlist. This was not promoted before game time and does not count toward the official record.

Jul 14, 2026 · 11:00 AM ETTipoff 11:00 AM ETLast verified 2026-07-14T10:26:58.715060+00:00Market Move · No Movement

The official WNBA schedule lists Portland at Connecticut on July 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET at Mohegan Sun Arena. Kennedy Burke is listed on Connecticut's current roster. User-provided market snapshot: Fanatics Over 11.5 +105 / Under 11.5 -140, consensus Over 11.5 EVEN / Under 11.5 -140, projection 14.0 P+R, 2.5-point Over cushion, +38% EV, and 68% cover probability. Kennedy Burke was not listed as injured in the provided ESPN Connecticut injury context. Reliable public Vegas handle or ticket-split movement is unavailable.

SMASH WATCHLIST — Kennedy Burke Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds. The 14.0 projection creates exactly 2.5 points of cushion to the Over, but the heavily juiced Under and mixed hit-rate profile create a market conflict that blocks official Smash status.

Quick Verdict

SMASH WATCHLIST — Kennedy Burke Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds. The 14.0 projection creates exactly 2.5 points of cushion to the Over, but the heavily juiced Under and mixed hit-rate profile create a market conflict that blocks official Smash status.

Original Number

Original Number

11.5

Current Line

11.5

Best Available Number

11.5

Historical Market Snapshot

Current line: 11.5. Over +105 at Fanatics Over 11.5 +105 / Under 11.5 -140; consensus Over 11.5 EVEN / Under 11.5 -140. Market move: No Movement.

Sharp Layer

Market conflict. The projection, EV, and cover probability favor the Over, while sportsbook pricing strongly favors the Under.Playable for Watchlist at Over 11.5 at +100 or better. Fanatics Over 11.5 +105 is the best entry. Pass or no chase at Over 12.5, or if Over 11.5 becomes worse than -115.

Watchlist only. The 2.5-point projection cushion sits exactly at the preferred combo-prop threshold rather than comfortably above it. Mixed recent, season, and head-to-head hit rates do not override the market resistance.

Closing Line WatchPromote to official live status only if late market pricing improves toward the Over, the Under juice softens, and Over 11.5 remains available.
Market RiskHigh for an official play. The Under is heavily juiced at -140, recent and season hit rates are mixed, and the head-to-head hit rate is 0%. The injury gate appears clear, but the market and trend conflict keeps this unofficial.
Best ActionWatchlist only. This is not an official play yet. Do not count it as an official play unless it is promoted before game time after the market conflict is rechecked.
Sharp Book Cross-Check
SportsbooksOver 11.5 EVEN / Under 11.5 -140
Sharp BookFanatics Over 11.5 +105 / Under 11.5 -140
PrizePicksUnavailable
SignalReliable public handle or ticket-split data is unavailable. Do not add a Vegas money-movement claim without a trusted source.
Best EntryFanatics Over 11.5 +105

The projection supports the Over, but the -140 Under price shows strong sportsbook resistance. Keep this on Watchlist unless late market support improves toward the Over.

Pregame Vegas / Market Read

Vegas / Market Read

The projection favors the Over, but the sportsbook market is pricing the Under as the stronger side. Fanatics and consensus both show Under 11.5 at -140, creating a clear market conflict. This is not a clean Smash and should remain Watchlist unless late pricing improves toward the Over while 11.5 remains available.

Opposite Side Check — Historical

Candidate: Under 11.5 Points + Rebounds

Not Recommended — Monitor Only

The original Watchlist side was never promoted and remains unchanged.

This section preserves the final pregame opposite-side assessment. It is historical context, not a current recommendation.

Side

Under

Market

Points + Rebounds

Line

11.5

Price

Under 11.5

Confidence

Low

Status

advisory — not official

Advisory context only. It never changes the official record, grading, or recap eligibility.

Why the prop makes sense

  • The projection shown is 14.0 P+R against an 11.5 line, creating 2.5 points of cushion to the Over.
  • Combo props generally prefer about 2.5 or more points of cushion, and this candidate meets that threshold.
  • The snapshot shows +38% EV and a 68% cover probability supporting the Over.
  • Fanatics offers Over 11.5 at plus money, which is the best shown entry.

Why it could lose

  • The sportsbook market is heavily pricing the Under at -140, creating a direct market conflict.
  • The cushion is exactly at the preferred minimum rather than comfortably above it.
  • The hit-rate profile is mixed: 40% over the last 5, 47% over the last 15, 45% for the season, and 0% head-to-head.
  • The edge loses quality if the line rises to 12.5 or if Over 11.5 becomes worse than -115.

Smash Scores

Over Score66
Under Score58
Pass Score64
Market Score43
Playable Number

Over 11.5 or better

Pregame Pass Number

Over 12.5 or higher

Pregame Final Call

SMASH WATCHLIST — Kennedy Burke Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds. Best entry: Over 11.5 at +105 on Fanatics. Playable: Over 11.5 at +100 or better. Pass / No Chase: Over 12.5, or Over 11.5 worse than -115. Promote to official live status only if late market improves toward the Over, Under juice softens, and 11.5 remains available. Reliable public Vegas handle or ticket-split movement is unavailable.

This content is for research and entertainment purposes only. No pick is guaranteed. Lines can move quickly. Always check the current line before making any decision.