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Kiki Iriafen
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Pass / No ChaseWNBA· Tipoff 7:00 PM ET

Kiki Iriafen Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds — Pass / No Chase

Points + Rebounds · Washington Mystics @ Toronto Tempo

Pass / No Chase· Number no longer playable

Pass / No Chase

Pass / No Chase. This Watchlist prop was never promoted to Live because the current market no longer supported the playable number.

Jul 14, 2026 · 7:00 PM ETTipoff 7:00 PM ETLast verified 2026-07-14T21:49:19.378997+00:00Market Move · Moved Down 1.0

Pass / No Chase · No official play · Not recap eligible. This report was passed before becoming an official play.

User-provided market snapshot: Underdog Under 25.5 -115, Fanatics Under 25.5 -120, Caesars Under 25.5 -122, consensus Under 25.5 -120, PrizePicks Under 25.0 -118, projection 22.8 P+R, 2.7-point Under cushion, +29% EV, and 68% cover probability. Washington at Toronto is scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Current preview context reports no Washington injuries. Reliable public Vegas handle or ticket-split movement is unavailable.

SMASH WATCHLIST — Kiki Iriafen Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds. The 22.8 projection creates 2.7 points of cushion to the Under, but weak recent and season hit rates create a formula conflict that keeps this from official Smash status.

Quick Verdict

Complete Pass — the market reached the pass number..

Pass / No Chase. Kiki Iriafen Under 25.5 was the playable number, but the books disagreed and there was no clean consensus number to trust, so the market reached the pass number. The edge is gone — do not chase.

Original Number

Original Number

25.5

Current Line

24.5

Original Best Available Number

25.5

Current Market Check

Current line: 24.5. Over -130 at Underdog Under 25.5 -115; Fanatics Under 25.5 -120; Caesars Under 25.5 -122; PrizePicks Under 25.0 -118; Under -102 at Underdog Under 25.5 -115; Fanatics Under 25.5 -120; Caesars Under 25.5 -122; PrizePicks Under 25.0 -118. Market move: Moved Down 1.0. Kiki Iriafen: The line moved to 24.5. Price moved toward Over. The Under has reached the pass number — treat as a pass. PrizePicks Under 25.0 -118 sits above the sportsbook market (a pass).

Sharp Layer

Pass Number ReachedPass

The original entry is no longer available. The sportsbook market may still be playable only if a fresh report supports the new number, but this original report should not chase the move.

Closing Line WatchPromote to Smash only if Under 25.5 remains available and late market or consensus support continues toward the Under without the price becoming worse than -125.
Market RiskModerate to high. The projection edge is favorable, but the recent and season trend profile is weak. The 100% head-to-head rate helps, but it is not enough by itself to override the broader sample conflict.
Best ActionPass — do not chase. Re-enter only if a fresh report supports the new number.
Sharp Book Cross-Check
Sportsbooks24.5
Sharp BookCaesars Under 25.5 -122
PrizePicksUnder 25.0 -118
SignalPrizePicks Higher Than Books
Best EntryPrizePicks Less Under 25.0 -118

PrizePicks is offering more cushion than the sportsbook market.

Vegas / Market Read

Vegas / Market Read

This prop is no longer playable at the current number. This is now Pass / No Chase because the books disagreed and there was no clean consensus number to trust. The market moved from 25.5 to 24.5, reaching the pass number.

Why the prop was tempting

  • The projection shown is 22.8 P+R against a 25.5 line, creating 2.7 points of cushion to the Under.
  • Combo props generally need about 2.5 or more points of cushion, and this candidate narrowly clears that threshold.
  • The snapshot shows +29% EV and a 68% cover probability supporting the Under.
  • Under 25.5 is available at Underdog, Fanatics, and Caesars, with Underdog offering the best price at -115.

Why we are passing

  • The recent hit-rate profile is weak: 20% over the last 5 and 27% over the last 15.
  • The season hit rate is only 39%, which conflicts with the favorable projection and EV.
  • The 2.7-point cushion is only slightly above the preferred combo-prop threshold and is not a large margin.
  • PrizePicks is already at 25.0, and the edge becomes too thin if the broader market falls to 25.0 or 24.5.

Smash Scores

Over Score41
Under Score63
Pass Score83
Market Score68
Playable Number

No longer playable — the market reached the pass number.

Pass Number

Under 25.0 or 24.5, or Under 25.5 worse than -125

Opposite Side Check: Is the Over Worth It?

Pass / No Chase — do not blend the DFS number with the sportsbook Under.

The DFS number may create a separate More/Over discussion, but it should not be blended with the sportsbook Under. Keep sportsbook and DFS entries separate.

Playable: Over only becomes interesting at a lower number or with strong plus-money support.Pass: Pass on the Over at the current number.

Final Call

Pass / No Chase. The original playable number is gone.

FAQ

Is this still playable?

No. The market reached the pass number (Under 25.0 or 24.5, or Under 25.5 worse than -125), so this is now Pass / No Chase.

What is the pass number?

The pass number was Under 25.0 or 24.5, or Under 25.5 worse than -125. The current market line is 24.5.

Why did it move to Pass / No Chase?

This is now Pass / No Chase because the books disagreed and there was no clean consensus number to trust. The line moved from 25.5 to 24.5, erasing the original edge. We do not chase past the pass number.

This content is for research and entertainment purposes only. No pick is guaranteed. Lines can move quickly. Always check the current line before making any decision.